Baltika Kaliningrad 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
40%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.94
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
9%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.39
X/2
13%
6.25
X/X
10%
5.71
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
15%
3.82
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+6.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 37%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.19/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.29
+0% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.5 Crosses 13.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
0W-4D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.78 xG 0.94
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
287 Passes 222
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
28.11.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
03.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 3-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
25.09.2019 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
26.09.2018 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1-3
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.22 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
23 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 1
256 Passes 225
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Baltika Kaliningrad vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Baltika Kaliningrad 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Lokomotiv Moscow made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 52% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 48%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 2.22 to 1.47 — the balance of chances actually favoured Baltika Kaliningrad.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 1.80 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-3 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 36%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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