Heracles 2-0 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 4 Feb 2025

Heracles
2-0 HT 2-0
Utrecht
📅04/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - KNVB Cup – 2024/2025

Heracles vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.61
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.3
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
10%
7.54
X/2
13%
4.71
X/X
17%
4.68
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.71
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 53% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 50%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.10/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/0.67
-27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 72%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
30.4 Crosses 17.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Heracles vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Utrecht
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
317 Passes 345
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.01.2025 Heracles Heracles 1-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
08.11.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
23.02.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
16.09.2023 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-2 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
11.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
28.11.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL

Heracles 2-0 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
2-0
AWAY Utrecht
2.76 xG 1.56
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
360 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles saw off Utrecht 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Utrecht at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Heracles had 49% of the ball to Utrecht's 51%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.76 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heracles and 1.17 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Utrecht?

Heracles 2-0 Utrecht in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Heracles 29%, draw 28%, Utrecht 43%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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