Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities
Valencia v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Valencia 1-2 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao found just enough to beat Valencia 2-1 on their travels. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
We leaned Valencia at 41% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. The market had leaned harder still (2.12, ~47%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 47% for over 2.5, 52% on both teams scoring.
On the day, Valencia had 52% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 48%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.07 to 1.56.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Athletic Bilbao.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Result & Final Score
Valencia 1 - 2 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 04/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valencia 41%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valencia), Under 2.5 went the other way.