Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Jan 2024

Valencia
1-0 HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.5
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.8
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.14
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
13%
6.4
X/2
16%
4.49
X/X
13%
3.87
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
22%
3.14
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.8pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 46%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.10/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.07
+6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
18.1 Crosses 20.6
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
290 Passes 333
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-2 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
11.02.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-2 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
26.01.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-3 HT 1-2 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK
21.08.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
07.05.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
02.03.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSPK

Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-0
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.89 xG 0.49
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
274 Passes 472
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Valencia had 39% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 61%, shots finished 6-6, expected goals 0.89 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valencia and 1.33 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Valencia 30%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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