Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Valencia — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-0
Valencia
İS1
1-2
HT 1-1
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
1-3
HT 1-2
Athletic Bilbao
İSPK
1-0
HT 1-0
Valencia
İS1
0-0
HT 0-0
Valencia
İS1
Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Valencia — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao edged past Valencia 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 51% of the ball to Valencia's 49%, shots finished 13-2, expected goals 1.38 to 0.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Athletic Bilbao's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.83 for Valencia.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia?
Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 45%, draw 29%, Valencia 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.