Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 4 Mar 2025

Bolton Wanderers
3-1 HT 1-1
Birmingham
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.92
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
14%
7.5
X/2
14%
4.48
X/X
13%
4.47
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.69
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-7.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.7pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bolton Wanderers v Birmingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 51%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.13/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.82
-16% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
247 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 74%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.0 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Birmingham
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.63 xG 1.39
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 288
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.10.2024 Birmingham Birmingham 2-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
12.02.2019 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL
22.08.2018 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
03.04.2018 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
15.08.2017 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL
23.02.2016 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL

Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Birmingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
3-1
AWAY Birmingham
1.15 xG 0.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
246 Passes 385
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers saw off Birmingham 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Bolton Wanderers found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 41% of the ball to Birmingham's 59%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.15 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 0.67 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham?

Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 34%, draw 26%, Birmingham 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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