Charlton Athletic 1-0 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 4 Mar 2025

📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.52
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
11%
8.1
X/X
11%
4.75
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
10%
6.25
2/X
9%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.65/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.32
+22% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 70%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
21.7 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
257 Passes 285
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 2-2 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
06.04.2024 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-1 HT 2-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
16.12.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
14.01.2023 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-0 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
24.09.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 3-1 HT 1-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
01.02.2020 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-1 HT 2-0 Barnsley Barnsley İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
1-0
AWAY Barnsley
0.74 xG 0.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
249 Passes 290
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlton Athletic squeezed past Barnsley 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Charlton Athletic as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 47% of the ball to Barnsley's 53%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.74 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlton Athletic had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.33 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Barnsley?

Charlton Athletic 1-0 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlton Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 46%, draw 27%, Barnsley 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlton Athletic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Charlton Athletic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
4 Mar 2025
22:45 Cambridge United vs Stevenage Analysis →
22:45 Blackpool vs Peterborough United Analysis →
22:45 Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
22:45 Bolton Wanderers vs Birmingham Analysis →
22:45 Mansfield Town vs Wigan Athletic Analysis →
22:45 Huddersfield Town vs Wrexham Analysis →