Cardiff City 1-2 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Mar 2025

Cardiff City
1-2 HT 1-2
Burnley
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Cardiff City vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.51
Over 2.5
46%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.13
No
49%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.19
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
5.26
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.46
1/2
14%
31.5
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
11%
7.4
X/2
13%
4.33
X/X
13%
3.69
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
14%
2.86
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
43%
+8.4pp
49%
BTTS No
57%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cardiff City v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 49%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +23%
0.87/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.79
-28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.5 Crosses 13.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Cardiff City vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Burnley
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.92 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
277 Passes 370
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Burnley Burnley 5-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
08.05.2023 Burnley Burnley 3-0 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
01.10.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
13.04.2019 Burnley Burnley 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNP
30.09.2018 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-2 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
05.04.2016 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL

Cardiff City 1-2 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
1-2
AWAY Burnley
1.33 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
387 Passes 371
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 32
27 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley nicked a narrow win over Cardiff City 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Burnley made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cardiff City had 52% of the ball to Burnley's 48%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.33 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cardiff City and 2.17 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Burnley?

Cardiff City 1-2 Burnley in the England - Championship on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 32%, draw 28%, Burnley 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
4 Mar 2025
22:45 Hull City vs Plymouth Argyle Analysis →
22:45 Preston North End vs Swansea City Analysis →
22:45 Millwall vs Bristol City Analysis →