Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 4 Mar 2025

📅04/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
50%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 25% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
13.0
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
7%
22.1
X/1
10%
14.85
X/2
19%
3.72
X/X
12%
6.49
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.66
2/X
7%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+10.3pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.6pp
50%
Away Win
67%
-16.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 71%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.36/2.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.29/1.37
-15% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -30%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 85%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.8
22.0 Crosses 21.1
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
348 Passes 420
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17.09.2020 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
14.09.2020 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 HT 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
02.03.2016 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 4-1 HT 0-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
24.02.2016 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-2 HT 0-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
1-0
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
1.02 xG 0.56
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
181 Passes 365
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Hilal Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pakhtakor Tashkent nicked a narrow win over Al Hilal Riyadh 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Hilal Riyadh at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pakhtakor Tashkent had 37% of the ball to Al Hilal Riyadh's 63%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.02 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pakhtakor Tashkent and 2.00 for Al Hilal Riyadh.

What was the final score of Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Pakhtakor Tashkent 24%, draw 26%, Al Hilal Riyadh 50%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AŞMP More AFC Sampiyonlar League
4 Mar 2025
15:00 Shanghai Port vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
17:00 Buriram United vs Johor DT Analysis →
21:00 Al Rayyan vs Al Ahli Jeddah Analysis →