Newcastle United vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Newcastle United v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals
Newcastle United vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Newcastle United 2-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics
Newcastle United squeezed past Manchester United 2-1. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
The model refused to pick a side here (35% / 26% / 39%); Newcastle United picked one for it. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.
By the numbers, Manchester United saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.48 to 1.48.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.00 a game for Newcastle United against 0.83 for Manchester United.
Newcastle United vs Manchester United Result & Final Score
Newcastle United 2 - 1 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Newcastle United vs Manchester United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 35%, draw 26%, Manchester United 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United) went the other way.