Newcastle United vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Newcastle United v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals
Newcastle United vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Manchester United
İNP
0-3
HT 0-2
Newcastle United
İNLK
2-0
HT 0-0
Manchester United
İNP
2-0
HT 2-0
Newcastle United
İNLK
Newcastle United 4-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics
Newcastle United ran out comfortable winners over Manchester United 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Newcastle United had 48% of the ball to Manchester United's 52%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.17 to 0.72.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newcastle United and 0.83 for Manchester United.
What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
Newcastle United 4-1 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Manchester United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 48%, draw 26%, Manchester United 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.