Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 4 Mar 2026

Marsilya
2-2 HT 1-1
Toulouse
📅04/03/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Marsilya vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.9
Over
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.23
2-3
38%
1.75
4-5
22%
3.39
6+
10%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.42
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
10%
8.3
X/X
11%
4.84
2/1 ✗
7%
23.5
2/2
10%
6.46
2/X
8%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.5 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Marsilya v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya The Market 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse The Market 27%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.48/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.16
-33% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.6 Crosses 13.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Marsilya vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.04
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
540 Passes 269
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.11.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
06.04.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 3-2 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
31.08.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 1-3 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
21.04.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
17.09.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-2
AWAY Toulouse
1.19 xG 1.54
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
443 Passes 264
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Marsilya vs Toulouse
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Marsilya and Toulouse couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We leaned Marsilya at 49% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 50% and both teams to score at 53%.

Under the surface, possession split 61% to 39% in Marsilya's favour, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.19 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Marsilya against 1.50 for Toulouse.

Marsilya vs Toulouse Result & Final Score

Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse in the France - Cup on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Marsilya vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 49%, draw 25%, Toulouse 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ BTTS Yes
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