Toulouse 1-3 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 31 Aug 2024

Toulouse
1-3 HT 0-2
Marsilya
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Toulouse vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.35
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
6.41
X/2
16%
4.95
X/X
14%
5.05
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
17%
3.03
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 46%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.33/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.16
-15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
18.5 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Toulouse vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Marsilya
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.28 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
312 Passes 448
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
17.09.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
29.12.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 6-1 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
08.02.2020 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
24.11.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Toulouse 1-3 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1-3
AWAY Marsilya
0.99 xG 0.84
24% Ball Possession 76%
3 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
204 Passes 814
75% Pass Accuracy 93%
6 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya beat Toulouse 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Marsilya found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toulouse had 24% of the ball to Marsilya's 76%, shots finished 3-12, expected goals 0.99 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toulouse and 2.33 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Marsilya?

Toulouse 1-3 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 35%, draw 25%, Marsilya 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5
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