Montpellier 1-3 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 31 Aug 2024

Montpellier
1-3 HT 1-2
Nantes
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Nantes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 29% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.05
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
11%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.91
X/2
11%
6.47
X/X
10%
4.78
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.49
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Nantes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.63/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.10
+12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.7 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Montpellier vs Nantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nantes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.90 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
359 Passes 327
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.04.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
22.10.2023 Nantes Nantes 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.05.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
15.01.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-3 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
06.03.2022 Nantes Nantes 2-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
31.10.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1

Montpellier 1-3 Nantes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-3
AWAY Nantes
0.92 xG 1.48
69% Ball Possession 31%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
491 Passes 191
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 17
35 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes saw off Montpellier 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montpellier had 69% of the ball to Nantes's 31%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.92 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nantes led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Montpellier and 1.33 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Nantes?

Montpellier 1-3 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 41%, draw 27%, Nantes 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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