Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 29 Nov 2025

Marsilya
2-2 HT 0-1
Toulouse
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Marsilya vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
17%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.03
Over
56%
1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.72
No
46%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
24%
3.76
2-3
41%
1.82
4-5
22%
3.15
6+
13%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.76 — our 24% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.13
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
19%
4.3
X/2
5%
10.05
X/X
8%
5.58
2/1
12%
22.25
2/2
9%
7.83
2/X
7%
16.0
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Marsilya v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse The Market 23%
-4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.80/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.74
+8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
423 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
19.5 Crosses 14.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Marsilya vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.22
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
492 Passes 302
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 3-2 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
31.08.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 1-3 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
21.04.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
17.09.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
29.12.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 6-1 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1

Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-2
AWAY Toulouse
1.80 xG 0.70
77% Ball Possession 23%
20 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
660 Passes 157
92% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Marsilya vs Toulouse
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Marsilya and Toulouse traded blows to a 2-2 standstill. Half-time: 0-1.

Our model won't enjoy this one — Marsilya at 63% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, Marsilya had 77% of the ball to Toulouse's 23%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.80 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Marsilya and 1.33 for Toulouse.

Marsilya vs Toulouse Result & Final Score

Marsilya 2-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Marsilya vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 63%, draw 20%, Toulouse 17%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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