Real Espana 1-0 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
65%
-5.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.5pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Espana EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 18%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
2.18/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.03
+10% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -13%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Espana
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
04.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
08.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
12.08.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
08.05.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
05.05.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
17.04.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 3-1 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Espana edged past Lobos UPNFM 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Espana as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Real Espana and 0.67 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM?

Real Espana 1-0 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Espana vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Espana win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Real Espana 59%, draw 19%, Lobos UPNFM 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Espana) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Espana) ✗ Over 2.5
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