Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Brisbane Roar v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
3-2
HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
0-0
HT 0-0
Macarthur
AVUS
Brisbane Roar 1-5 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur cruised past Brisbane Roar 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Macarthur found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Brisbane Roar had 47% of the ball to Macarthur's 53%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 0.84 to 3.17.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brisbane Roar and 2.17 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?
Brisbane Roar 1-5 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated an Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 35%, draw 25%, Macarthur 40%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macarthur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.