Macarthur 4-4 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 30 Nov 2024

Macarthur
4-4 HT 1-2
Brisbane Roar
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.39
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
6.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
18%
5.22
X/2
7%
9.5
X/X
8%
6.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.4
2/2
10%
6.05
2/X
9%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.4pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.46/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.61
+21% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
440 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 81%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
19.5 Crosses 18.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 1.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
318 Passes 442
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-2 HT 1-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.01.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
21.10.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
05.03.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 3-2 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
08.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
15.04.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Macarthur 4-4 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
4-4
AWAY Brisbane Roar
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
477 Passes 277
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Brisbane Roar shared the points in a 4-4 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 62% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 38%, shots finished 15-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Macarthur and 1.00 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar?

Macarthur 4-4 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 53%, draw 23%, Brisbane Roar 23%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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