Al Ahli Manama 1-0 Al Najma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Manama EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Najma EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.23/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.26
-12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
310 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Manama
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Najma
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Al Najma Al Najma 2-3 HT 2-1 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
28.04.2024 Al Najma Al Najma 2-1 HT 0-1 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
25.11.2023 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
04.11.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
26.03.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
20.01.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Manama vs Al Najma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Manama nicked a narrow win over Al Najma 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Al Ahli Manama found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Manama had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Al Ahli Manama and 1.00 for Al Najma.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Manama vs Al Najma?

Al Ahli Manama 1-0 Al Najma in the Bahrain - Premier League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Manama vs Al Najma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Manama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Manama 38%, draw 27%, Al Najma 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Manama), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Manama) ✓ Under 2.5
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