Al Najma 2-3 Al Ahli Manama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.7
2-3 Goals
34%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Najma EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Manama EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.64/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.26
+52% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Najma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Al Ahli Manama
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.04.2024 Al Najma Al Najma 2-1 HT 0-1 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
25.11.2023 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
04.11.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
26.03.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
20.01.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
25.08.2021 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
POST-MATCH Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Manama squeezed past Al Najma 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahli Manama as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Manama led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Al Najma and 1.50 for Al Ahli Manama.

What was the final score of Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama?

Al Najma 2-3 Al Ahli Manama in the Bahrain - Premier League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Manama win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Najma 31%, draw 23%, Al Ahli Manama 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Manama), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Manama) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BAH More Bahrain - Premier League
27 Sep 2024
19:00 Khalidiya vs Al Riffa Analysis →
19:00 Malkiya vs Muharraq Analysis →