Academia Puerto Cabello 2-2 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.71
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
41%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.01
6+ Goals
7%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 34% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
9.55
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
6%
18.4
X/1
10%
10.75
X/2
16%
3.93
X/X
16%
4.76
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
18%
2.1
2/X
7%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
18%
+11.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
41%
Away Win
58%
-16.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academia Puerto Cabello EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
Crosses 16.2
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academia Puerto Cabello
2-2
AWAY Lanus
0.50 xG 1.04
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 1
317 Passes 277
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Academia Puerto Cabello vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academia Puerto Cabello and Lanus shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lanus at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academia Puerto Cabello had 53% of the ball to Lanus's 47%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 0.50 to 1.04.

What was the final score of Academia Puerto Cabello vs Lanus?

Academia Puerto Cabello 2-2 Lanus in the Copa Sudamericana on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academia Puerto Cabello vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Academia Puerto Cabello 30%, draw 29%, Lanus 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lanus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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