Mushuc Runa 3-2 Palestino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.18
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.65
X/1
18%
4.2
X/2
8%
9.99
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
9%
24.2
2/2
11%
8.24
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+6.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Palestino EU Bookmakers 22%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
1.35/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.79
+14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -65%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 71%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
23.0 Crosses 22.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
3-2
AWAY Palestino
1.14 xG 0.68
43% Ball Possession 57%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 11
150 Passes 205
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Palestino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa edged past Palestino 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mushuc Runa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 43% of the ball to Palestino's 57%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.14 to 0.68.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Palestino?

Mushuc Runa 3-2 Palestino in the Copa Sudamericana on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Palestino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 50%, draw 24%, Palestino 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mushuc Runa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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