Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-1 Union Espanola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.76
6+ Goals
9%
7.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.1
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
12%
4.49
X/2
8%
10.2
X/X
14%
6.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.65
2/2
7%
7.43
2/X
5%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gualberto Villarroel SJ EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Espanola EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1-1
AWAY Union Espanola
0.83 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
22 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 Passes 375
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Union Espanola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Union Espanola couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gualberto Villarroel SJ had 45% of the ball to Union Espanola's 55%, shots finished 22-19, expected goals 0.83 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Union Espanola?

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1-1 Union Espanola in the Copa Sudamericana on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Union Espanola?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gualberto Villarroel SJ win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gualberto Villarroel SJ 50%, draw 26%, Union Espanola 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gualberto Villarroel SJ), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gualberto Villarroel SJ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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