Hegelmann II 1-2 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
32%
3.8
Away
41%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.2pp
32%
Draw
23%
+9.5pp
41%
Away Win
55%
-13.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 59%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.78/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.22
+79% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY BFA
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 BFA BFA 3-2 Hegelmann II LIT1
13.05.2024 Hegelmann II 2-0 HT 1-0 BFA BFA LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann II
1-2
AWAY BFA
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hegelmann II vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA edged past Hegelmann II 2-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFA as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hegelmann II had 50% of the ball to BFA's 50%, shots finished 9-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hegelmann II and 1.50 for BFA.

What was the final score of Hegelmann II vs BFA?

Hegelmann II 1-2 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann II vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann II 27%, draw 32%, BFA 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFA) ✓ BTTS Yes
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