28/09/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
3-1
BFA vs Hegelmann II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
28%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
4%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
💡 For the risk lovers:
Home Win
★★
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
29%
Draw
24%
26%
Away Win
27%
44%
Under 2.5
36%
56%
Over 2.5
64%
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
46%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
BFA v Hegelmann II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
BFA
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Hegelmann II
EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% /
+6%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+7% /
+7%
2.78/1.15
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.00/1.77
+82%
/
-7%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+85%
/
-10%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
13
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
465 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
298 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.1
Yellow Cards
1.0
BFA vs Hegelmann II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
BFA
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Hegelmann II
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
51%
Ball Possession
49%
17
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Target
2
9
Corners
4
3
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
BFA vs Hegelmann II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
BFA edged past Hegelmann II 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFA as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
What was the final score of BFA vs Hegelmann II?
BFA 3-2 Hegelmann II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for BFA vs Hegelmann II?
Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split BFA 45%, draw 29%, Hegelmann II 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (BFA)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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28 Sep 2024