Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Apr 2026

Rio Ave
1-2 HT 0-2
Alverca
📅04/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Rio Ave vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.98
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.09
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
12%
5.74
X/2
13%
5.36
X/X
11%
4.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
31.5
2/2
13%
3.69
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Alverca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.46/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.00
+10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +57%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
15.9 Crosses 15.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.5

Rio Ave vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Alverca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.69 xG 1.59
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 416
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
08.11.2025 Alverca Alverca 1-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
23.11.2024 Alverca Alverca 2-2 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POK
24.11.2019 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POK
16.02.2004 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 1-2 Alverca Alverca POR
21.09.2003 Alverca Alverca 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-2
AWAY Alverca
1.47 xG 1.37
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
353 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca squeezed past Rio Ave 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Alverca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rio Ave had 52% of the ball to Alverca's 48%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alverca led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rio Ave and 1.20 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Alverca?

Rio Ave 1-2 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 40%, draw 27%, Alverca 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rio Ave) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ BTTS Yes
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