Girona 4-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 May 2024

Girona
4-2 HT 1-2
Barcelona
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Girona vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.62
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.63
6+ Goals
11%
6.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.87
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
11%
6.61
X/2
13%
5.55
X/X
12%
5.77
2/1
12%
26.0
2/2
19%
3.03
2/X
7%
12.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-13.6pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Girona v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +24%
1.47/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.96
+22% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +80%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.9 Crosses 13.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Girona vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.38 xG 2.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
312 Passes 523
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-4 HT 1-2 Girona Girona İS1
10.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
28.01.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
24.07.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 2-1 Girona Girona HAZ
27.01.2019 Girona Girona 0-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
23.09.2018 Barcelona Barcelona 2-2 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İS1

Girona 4-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
4-2
AWAY Barcelona
1.86 xG 2.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 516
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
37 Box Touches 34
8 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Girona vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona saw off Barcelona 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Barcelona at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Girona had 40% of the ball to Barcelona's 60%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.86 to 2.56 — on chances, Barcelona could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Girona and 1.67 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Girona vs Barcelona?

Girona 4-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Girona 32%, draw 26%, Barcelona 41%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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