Metz 2-3 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 May 2024

Metz
2-3 HT 2-1
Rennes
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Metz vs Rennes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.57
1/2
9%
24.45
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
8%
7.43
X/2
14%
4.36
X/X
15%
4.75
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.65
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Rennes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 51%
-7% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.01/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.12
-20% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
20.6 Crosses 17.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Metz vs Rennes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Rennes
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.86 xG 2.31
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
305 Passes 483
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Rennes Rennes 5-1 HT 1-1 Metz Metz FR1
20.03.2022 Rennes Rennes 6-1 HT 3-0 Metz Metz FR1
17.10.2021 Metz Metz 0-3 HT 0-3 Rennes Rennes FR1
20.03.2021 Metz Metz 1-3 HT 0-2 Rennes Rennes FR1
23.12.2020 Rennes Rennes 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
04.12.2019 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1

Metz 2-3 Rennes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
2-3
AWAY Rennes
0.61 xG 2.18
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 4
209 Passes 478
70% Pass Accuracy 85%
4 Box Touches 40
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Metz vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes squeezed past Metz 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Rennes made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Metz had 35% of the ball to Rennes's 65%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.61 to 2.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rennes's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Metz and 3.17 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Metz vs Rennes?

Metz 2-3 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Metz 33%, draw 28%, Rennes 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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