Tobol 1-0 Zhetysu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+11.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.6pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Zhetysu EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +26%
2.06/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.44
+22% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Zhetysu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Tobol Tobol 1-2 HT 1-1 Zhetysu Zhetysu KAZP
02.04.2023 Zhetysu Zhetysu 1-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.06.2021 Tobol Tobol 2-1 HT 1-1 Zhetysu Zhetysu KAZP
10.04.2021 Zhetysu Zhetysu 0-2 HT 0-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
02.10.2020 Tobol Tobol 2-0 HT 0-0 Zhetysu Zhetysu KAZP
14.03.2020 Zhetysu Zhetysu 0-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Zhetysu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past Zhetysu 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Zhetysu.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Zhetysu?

Tobol 1-0 Zhetysu in the Kazakistan - Super League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Zhetysu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tobol 48%, draw 25%, Zhetysu 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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