Vard Haugesund 3-1 Notodden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 2nd Division, 4 May 2024

Vard Haugesund
3-1 HT 0-1
Notodden
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Norway - 2nd Division – 2024

Vard Haugesund vs Notodden Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 28% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vard Haugesund v Notodden — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vard Haugesund EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Notodden EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.82/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.31
-17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5

Vard Haugesund vs Notodden Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vard Haugesund
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Notodden
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.07.2023 Notodden Notodden 5-1 HT 2-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
24.06.2023 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 3-4 HT 1-1 Notodden Notodden NOR3
20.08.2022 Notodden Notodden 0-0 HT 0-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
26.06.2022 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 1-1 HT 0-0 Notodden Notodden NOR3
14.11.2021 Notodden Notodden 3-1 HT 0-0 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund NOR3
29.07.2021 Vard Haugesund Vard Haugesund 3-2 HT 1-1 Notodden Notodden NOR3
POST-MATCH Vard Haugesund vs Notodden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vard Haugesund got the better of Notodden 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vard Haugesund as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notodden led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vard Haugesund and 2.50 for Notodden.

What was the final score of Vard Haugesund vs Notodden?

Vard Haugesund 3-1 Notodden in the Norway - 2nd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vard Haugesund vs Notodden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vard Haugesund win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Vard Haugesund 52%, draw 24%, Notodden 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vard Haugesund) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vard Haugesund) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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