Ratchaburi 0-1 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.1
Over 2.5
42%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.56
No
55%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.9pp
55%
BTTS No
40%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ratchaburi EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 34%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.11/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.94
+28% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.1 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ratchaburi
1W-1D-1L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 0.59
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
250 Passes 440
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-1 HT 2-0 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi TAY
20.11.2022 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi 3-0 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
08.01.2022 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi 1-1 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ratchaburi
0-1
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.41 xG 0.47
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
341 Passes 373
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United nicked a narrow win over Ratchaburi 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; BG Pathum United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ratchaburi had 49% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 51%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.41 to 0.47 — on chances, Ratchaburi could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ratchaburi and 1.00 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?

Ratchaburi 0-1 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ratchaburi win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ratchaburi 39%, draw 24%, BG Pathum United 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ratchaburi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ratchaburi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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