Sparta Prag 1-3 Jablonec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
16%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Jablonec EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
2.56/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.46
+21% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
24.9 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Jablonec
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.39 xG 0.90
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
341 Passes 247
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-1 HT 0-1 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
17.08.2024 Jablonec Jablonec 1-2 HT 0-1 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
09.12.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-0 HT 3-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
12.08.2023 Jablonec Jablonec 1-5 HT 0-5 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
19.02.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-0 HT 1-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
30.08.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 1-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag
1-3
AWAY Jablonec
0.96 xG 1.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
429 Passes 297
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag vs Jablonec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jablonec got the better of Sparta Prag 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Prag at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sparta Prag had 57% of the ball to Jablonec's 43%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 0.96 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sparta Prag and 0.67 for Jablonec.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Jablonec?

Sparta Prag 1-3 Jablonec in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Jablonec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 52%, draw 24%, Jablonec 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sparta Prag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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