Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.6
2-3 Goals
35%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.4
1/2
7%
22.45
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
13%
6.97
X/2
18%
5.43
X/X
14%
5.61
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
14%
2.99
2/X
5%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 48%
+19% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.69/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.43
+44% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
16.8 Crosses 15.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.78
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
404 Passes 318
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
11.05.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
02.09.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
18.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
13.08.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
05.03.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
AWAY Newcastle United
0.69 xG 1.87
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
295 Passes 369
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 46% of the ball to Newcastle United's 54%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.69 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.33 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 35%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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