Brentford 4-3 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.09
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
10%
10.1
X/X
8%
6.35
2/1
6%
20.0
2/2
10%
7.22
2/X
7%
15.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.8pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -24%
2.34/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.81
+16% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
36.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
23.7 Crosses 15.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.23
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
272 Passes 480
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
34 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
30.03.2024 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
07.10.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
05.04.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
13.08.2022 Brentford Brentford 4-0 HT 4-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
02.05.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
4-3
AWAY Manchester United
2.80 xG 1.56
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
327 Passes 391
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford nicked a narrow win over Manchester United 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brentford as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brentford had 47% of the ball to Manchester United's 53%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.80 to 1.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brentford's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brentford and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Manchester United?

Brentford 4-3 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brentford win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Brentford 52%, draw 21%, Manchester United 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brentford), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brentford) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 May 2025
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