Brentford 1-1 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Mar 2024

Brentford
1-1 HT 0-0
Manchester United
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Brentford vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.91
2-3 Goals
34%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
15%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.48
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
20.85
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
14%
7.45
X/2
14%
5.07
X/X
6%
6.06
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
20%
2.63
2/X
10%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.85 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.4pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brentford v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brentford EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 50%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.51/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.16
+8% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
313 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
16.1 Crosses 15.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Brentford vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brentford
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.13 xG 1.40
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
269 Passes 502
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
05.04.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
13.08.2022 Brentford Brentford 4-0 HT 4-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
02.05.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
19.01.2022 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
28.07.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 2-2 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford HAZ

Brentford 1-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brentford
1-1
AWAY Manchester United
3.29 xG 0.59
47% Ball Possession 53%
31 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 4
263 Passes 359
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
85 Box Touches 15
37 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brentford vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford and Manchester United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester United at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Brentford had 47% of the ball to Manchester United's 53%, shots finished 31-11, expected goals 3.29 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brentford and 1.83 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Brentford vs Manchester United?

Brentford 1-1 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brentford vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Brentford 34%, draw 24%, Manchester United 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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