Chelsea 2-2 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Mar 2024

Chelsea
2-2 HT 1-0
Burnley
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.74
Over 2.5
57%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.55
2-3 Goals
39%
2.14
4-5 Goals
27%
2.5
6+ Goals
12%
5.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
21.85
X/1
28%
3.65
X/2
10%
19.8
X/X
12%
9.13
2/1
8%
20.0
2/2
7%
13.6
2/X
5%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
72%
-17.0pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.2pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
33%
+10.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
67%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
2.00/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.03
-21% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
483 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.3 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Chelsea vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Burnley
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.80 xG 0.61
68% Ball Possession 32%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
601 Passes 234
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Burnley Burnley 1-4 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
05.03.2022 Burnley Burnley 0-4 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
06.11.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
31.01.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
31.10.2020 Burnley Burnley 0-3 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
11.01.2020 Chelsea Chelsea 3-0 HT 2-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Chelsea 2-2 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
2-2
AWAY Burnley
4.26 xG 1.64
69% Ball Possession 31%
33 Total Shots 18
13 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 4
570 Passes 204
91% Pass Accuracy 75%
56 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea and Burnley couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Chelsea carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 69% of the ball to Burnley's 31%, shots finished 33-18, expected goals 4.26 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Chelsea and 0.33 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Burnley?

Chelsea 2-2 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 55%, draw 23%, Burnley 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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