Newcastle United 4-3 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 30 Mar 2024

Newcastle United
4-3 HT 1-2
West Ham United
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Newcastle United vs West Ham United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.36
2-3 Goals
34%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.37
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.6
X/2
10%
8.27
X/X
11%
6.11
2/1
6%
20.3
2/2
11%
5.3
2/X
5%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v West Ham United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -18%
2.32/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.75
+22% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.8 Crosses 19.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Newcastle United vs West Ham United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY West Ham United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.86 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
375 Passes 307
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 2-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
05.04.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-5 HT 1-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.02.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 1-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
19.02.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
15.08.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-4 HT 2-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
17.04.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-2 HT 2-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP

Newcastle United 4-3 West Ham United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
4-3
AWAY West Ham United
4.07 xG 1.42
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
425 Passes 248
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
52 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United edged past West Ham United 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle United had 60% of the ball to West Ham United's 40%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 4.07 to 1.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Newcastle United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.83 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs West Ham United?

Newcastle United 4-3 West Ham United in the England - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 51%, draw 23%, West Ham United 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
30 Mar 2024
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