Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.97
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.2
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.0
X/1
12%
5.84
X/2
13%
6.71
X/X
14%
5.72
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
17%
3.98
2/X
6%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.2pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.59/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.74
-13% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
16.7 Crosses 13.4
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.51 xG 1.61
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
486 Passes 417
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.10.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
25.02.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
31.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.08.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
04.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
21.01.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
3-1
AWAY Liverpool
3.13 xG 1.05
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
300 Passes 573
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
39 Box Touches 34
6 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea beat Liverpool 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Chelsea made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 35% of the ball to Liverpool's 65%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 3.13 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chelsea and 1.33 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 35%, draw 28%, Liverpool 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 May 2025
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