Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.23
2-3 Goals
44%
2.09
4-5 Goals
23%
2.54
6+ Goals
16%
5.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.09
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.41
X/2
12%
9.69
X/X
11%
6.72
2/1
5%
19.2
2/2
10%
6.11
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.2
Value flag · 2/X at 14.2 — our 9% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.6pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.5pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
2.12/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.23
+24% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 83%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
22.6 Crosses 15.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Chelsea
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.57 xG 1.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
448 Passes 482
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
35 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
31.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.08.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
04.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
21.01.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
14.05.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-1
AWAY Chelsea
1.94 xG 0.99
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
326 Passes 476
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 26
4 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool edged past Chelsea 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Liverpool had 42% of the ball to Chelsea's 58%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.94 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Liverpool and 0.33 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 47%, draw 27%, Chelsea 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
20 Oct 2024
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