Basel 5-1 Servette — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.25
2-3 Goals
40%
2.15
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
5.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.45
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
12%
5.1
X/2
9%
8.4
X/X
6%
6.49
2/1
8%
19.6
2/2
13%
5.24
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.4
Value flag · 2/X at 13.4 — our 11% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.8pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Servette EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +18%
1.79/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.55
-4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 74%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.8 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Servette
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.93 xG 1.16
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
347 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.02.2025 Servette Servette 2-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
24.11.2024 Basel Basel 3-1 HT 1-0 Servette Servette İSV
11.08.2024 Servette Servette 0-6 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
14.04.2024 Basel Basel 2-1 HT 2-0 Servette Servette İSV
12.11.2023 Servette Servette 4-1 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
21.10.2023 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Servette Servette İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
5-1
AWAY Servette
2.97 xG 1.01
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 8
457 Passes 255
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Basel vs Servette
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel cruised past Servette 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Basel had 60% of the ball to Servette's 40%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.97 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Basel and 1.50 for Servette.

What was the final score of Basel vs Servette?

Basel 5-1 Servette in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Servette?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Basel 46%, draw 25%, Servette 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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