Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
Roma v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Roma vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Roma 1-0 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Roma came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Fiorentina 1-0.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. At 1.78 (~56%), the under-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
Under the surface, Roma had 41% of the ball to Fiorentina's 59%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.63 to 0.97.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Roma and 2.00 for Fiorentina.
Roma vs Fiorentina Result & Final Score
Roma 1-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Roma 55%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.