Empoli 0-1 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 May 2025

Empoli
0-1 HT 0-1
Lazio
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Empoli vs Lazio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
43%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.68
Over
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.97
No
51%
1.74
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.7
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
20%
4.16
6+
9%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.15
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
9%
8.47
X/2
16%
4.24
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.49
2/X ✗
11%
14.7
Value flag · 2/X at 14.7 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Empoli v Lazio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio The Market 55%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
0.84/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.07
-7% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +31%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 80%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
14.9 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Empoli vs Lazio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Lazio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.90 xG 1.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
318 Passes 426
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Lazio Lazio 2-1 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
12.05.2024 Lazio Lazio 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
22.12.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.06.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
08.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-2 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
06.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 3-3 HT 1-2 Empoli Empoli İTA

Empoli 0-1 Lazio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-1
AWAY Lazio
0.24 xG 1.81
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
246 Passes 469
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Empoli vs Lazio
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lazio came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Empoli 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: under 2.5 goals (59%) landed.

On the day, Empoli had 37% of the ball to Lazio's 63%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.24 to 1.81 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lazio's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Empoli and 2.17 for Lazio.

Empoli vs Lazio Result & Final Score

Empoli 0-1 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Empoli vs Lazio Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Empoli 26%, draw 31%, Lazio 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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