Fiorentina 2-2 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 10 Mar 2024

Fiorentina
2-2 HT 1-0
Roma
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Fiorentina vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.08
6+ Goals
10%
19.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.59
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
11%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.2
X/2
10%
5.75
X/X
13%
4.16
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
12%
4.14
2/X
5%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-3.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -20%
1.60/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.07
-16% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.3 Crosses 14.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Fiorentina vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.28
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
418 Passes 320
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
15.01.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
09.05.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 2-0 Roma Roma İTA
22.08.2021 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.03.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA

Fiorentina 2-2 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-2
AWAY Roma
2.13 xG 0.60
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
220 Passes 516
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Roma couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 33% of the ball to Roma's 67%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.13 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fiorentina and 1.50 for Roma.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Roma?

Fiorentina 2-2 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 42%, draw 29%, Roma 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fiorentina), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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