Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

Augsburg
1-3 HT 0-2
Holstein Kiel
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.94
6+ Goals
13%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.34
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
11%
4.58
X/2
11%
8.79
X/X
11%
5.72
2/1
8%
21.3
2/2
8%
6.35
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-8.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.27/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.18
-34% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
21.7 Crosses 21.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.27 xG 1.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
21.12.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 5-1 HT 4-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.02.2019 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AFK

Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-3
AWAY Holstein Kiel
3.22 xG 1.76
72% Ball Possession 28%
27 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 0
517 Passes 169
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
45 Box Touches 8
42 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel saw off Augsburg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Augsburg had 72% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 28%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 3.22 to 1.76 — the balance of chances actually favoured Augsburg.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Augsburg and 2.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 44%, draw 28%, Holstein Kiel 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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