Freiburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

Freiburg
2-2 HT 1-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
47%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.48
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
23.3
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
13%
6.99
X/2
11%
5.45
X/X
12%
5.29
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
24%
3.04
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.3 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.2pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.1pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+4.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.2pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.40/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.39
+8% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
307 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 80%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
18.5 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.02 xG 2.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
292 Passes 517
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
17.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
29.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.09.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
14.05.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
2-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
201 Passes 539
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 32% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 68%, shots finished 7-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Freiburg and 2.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Freiburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 31%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5
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