Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt — Result, Stats & Model Review (Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2025)

Mainz 05

1-1 HT 0-1

Eintracht Frankfurt

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗

Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

40%

2.25

Draw

25%

3.45

Away

35%

2.72

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45%

2.21

Over 2.5

55%

1.6

Both Teams to Score

Yes

56%

1.5

44%

2.4

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

25%

4.5

2-3 Goals

37%

1.9

4-5 Goals

26%

2.83

6+ Goals

12%

7.9

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

15%

3.23

1/2

27.0

1/X EV+ ✗

11%

12.2

X/1

17%

5.69

X/2

15%

6.64

X/X

5.42

2/1

23.3

2/2

13%

4.1

2/X

12.4

Value flag · 1/X at 12.2 — our 11% vs market 5.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

40%

Home Win

41%

-1.2pp

26%

Draw

26%

-0.2pp

35%

Away Win

33%

+1.3pp

45%

Under 2.5

41%

+3.7pp

55%

Over 2.5

59%

-3.7pp

56%

BTTS Yes

62%

-6.4pp

44%

BTTS No

38%

+6.4pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 44%

Head to Head

AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt EU Bookmakers 37%

-7% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%

1.52/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.36

-25% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +1%

48% Ball Possession 52%

12 Total Shots 11

5 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 5

316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%

27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2

21.6 Crosses 16.9

1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Mainz 05

1W-3D-2L

AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt

1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50

1.07 xG 1.78

41% Ball Possession 59%

11 Total Shots 15

4 Shots on Target 4

3 Corners 6

268 Passes 424

71% Pass Accuracy 80%

22 Box Touches 30

14 Crosses 22

2 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

21.12.2024 Eintracht Frankfurt

1-3 HT 0-2

Mainz 05 AL1

26.01.2024 Eintracht Frankfurt

1-0 HT 0-0

Mainz 05 AL1

27.08.2023 Mainz 05

1-1 HT 1-0

Eintracht Frankfurt AL1

13.05.2023 Eintracht Frankfurt

3-0 HT 2-0

Mainz 05 AL1

13.11.2022 Mainz 05

1-1 HT 1-0

Eintracht Frankfurt AL1

14.05.2022 Mainz 05

2-2 HT 1-2

Eintracht Frankfurt AL1

Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Mainz 05

1-1

AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt

1.45 xG 1.33

65% Ball Possession 35%

12 Total Shots 8

3 Shots on Target 2

8 Corners 1

444 Passes 210

81% Pass Accuracy 68%

23 Box Touches 8

32 Crosses 6

1 Yellow Cards 0

POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 65% of the ball to Eintracht Frankfurt's 35%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.45 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eintracht Frankfurt led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.50 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 40%, draw 26%, Eintracht Frankfurt 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →

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Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction — Model Probabilities

Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — Team-Based Signals

Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt — Actual Match Statistics

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?