Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.03
Over 2.5
58%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.61
No
40%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.81
X/2
12%
7.14
X/X
8%
5.1
2/1
7%
23.85
2/2
16%
4.9
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 1/X at 13.05 — our 11% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+6.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
45%
-3.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
55%
+3.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.1pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.55/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.73
-14% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.7 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.65 xG 1.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
404 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2024 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
27.08.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
13.05.2023 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
13.11.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
14.05.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AL1
18.12.2021 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eintracht Frankfurt
1-3
AWAY Mainz 05
2.58 xG 0.60
71% Ball Possession 29%
34 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 2
469 Passes 157
85% Pass Accuracy 64%
67 Box Touches 12
59 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 saw off Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Mainz 05 made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Eintracht Frankfurt had 71% of the ball to Mainz 05's 29%, shots finished 34-9, expected goals 2.58 to 0.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Eintracht Frankfurt.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eintracht Frankfurt had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.67 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05?

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eintracht Frankfurt win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Eintracht Frankfurt) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Eintracht Frankfurt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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