Holstein Kiel 5-1 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

Holstein Kiel
5-1 HT 4-1
Augsburg
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Holstein Kiel vs Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.97
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
6.9
X/2
12%
4.78
X/X
11%
4.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.97
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · X/1 at 6.9 — our 17% vs market 10.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
29%
+10.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Augsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 48%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.92/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/0.57
-47% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +116% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 78%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
13.5 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 0.9

Holstein Kiel vs Augsburg Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Augsburg
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.90 xG 0.98
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
383 Passes 251
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.02.2019 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AFK

Holstein Kiel 5-1 Augsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
5-1
AWAY Augsburg
1.67 xG 1.55
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
213 Passes 404
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 31
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel cruised past Augsburg 5-1. Half-time: 4-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Holstein Kiel found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 38% of the ball to Augsburg's 62%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.67 to 1.55.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Augsburg?

Holstein Kiel 5-1 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 39%, draw 25%, Augsburg 36%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holstein Kiel), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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