Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

Stuttgart
0-1 HT 0-1
St. Pauli
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Stuttgart vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.17
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 27% vs market 18.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
6%
12.4
X/X
13%
6.41
2/1
9%
21.45
2/2
10%
9.37
2/X
8%
17.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.3pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
2.22/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.61
+18% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +65%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
457 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.1 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6

Stuttgart vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
5W-1D-0L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.00 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
372 Passes 222
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2020 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
17.08.2019 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
29.01.2017 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
08.08.2016 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
31.10.2012 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-0 HT 3-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
13.03.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
0-1
AWAY St. Pauli
2.09 xG 2.16
73% Ball Possession 27%
25 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
603 Passes 187
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
58 Box Touches 16
36 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli nicked a narrow win over Stuttgart 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stuttgart had 73% of the ball to St. Pauli's 27%, shots finished 25-11, expected goals 2.09 to 2.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Stuttgart and 0.67 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs St. Pauli?

Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 51%, draw 27%, St. Pauli 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Stuttgart) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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