Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.6
X/1
14%
3.68
X/2
7%
14.55
X/X
10%
7.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.25
2/2
7%
10.95
2/X
10%
19.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.0pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -14%
2.00/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.86
-10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -20%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
455 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
33.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.8 Crosses 14.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.81 xG 1.27
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
485 Passes 300
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
29.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.02.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.09.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
14.05.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.12.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
5-1
AWAY Freiburg
2.86 xG 0.67
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 8
12 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
603 Passes 251
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
40 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen swept aside Freiburg 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 67% of the ball to Freiburg's 33%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.86 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?

Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 55%, draw 25%, Freiburg 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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